Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory
Zhu, L; Fan, Y
2010
Source PublicationENERGY
ISSN0360-5442
Volume35Issue:3Pages:12,1391-1402
AbstractThis paper applies portfolio theory to evaluate China's 2020-medium-term plans for generating technologies and its generating portfolio. With reference to the risk of relevant generating-cost streams, the paper discusses China's future development of efficient (Pareto optimal) generating portfolios that enhance energy security in different scenarios, including CO(2)-emission-constrained scenarios. This research has found that the future adjustment of China's planned 2020 generating portfolio can reduce the portfolio's cost risk through appropriate diversification of generating technologies, but a price will be paid in the form of increased generating cost. In the CO(2)-emission-constrained scenarios, the generating-cost risk of China's planned 2020 portfolio is even greater than that of the 2005 portfolio, but increasing the proportion of nuclear power in the generating portfolio can reduce the cost risk effectively. For renewable-power generation, because of relatively high generating costs, it will be necessary to obtain stronger policy support to promote renewable-power development. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
KeywordGenerating Portfolio Renewable Power Generation Planning Generating Risk
Subject AreaThermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000275596200022
Citation statistics
Cited Times:65[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/4469
Collection中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2015年12月)
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhu, L,Fan, Y. Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory[J]. ENERGY,2010,35(3):12,1391-1402.
APA Zhu, L,&Fan, Y.(2010).Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory.ENERGY,35(3),12,1391-1402.
MLA Zhu, L,et al."Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory".ENERGY 35.3(2010):12,1391-1402.
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