Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory

CASISD OpenIR > 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2015年12月)

	Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory
	Zhu, L; Fan, Y
发表期刊	ENERGY
关键词	Generating Portfolio Renewable Power Generation Planning Generating Risk
摘要	This paper applies portfolio theory to evaluate China's 2020-medium-term plans for generating technologies and its generating portfolio. With reference to the risk of relevant generating-cost streams, the paper discusses China's future development of efficient (Pareto optimal) generating portfolios that enhance energy security in different scenarios, including CO(2)-emission-constrained scenarios. This research has found that the future adjustment of China's planned 2020 generating portfolio can reduce the portfolio's cost risk through appropriate diversification of generating technologies, but a price will be paid in the form of increased generating cost. In the CO(2)-emission-constrained scenarios, the generating-cost risk of China's planned 2020 portfolio is even greater than that of the 2005 portfolio, but increasing the proportion of nuclear power in the generating portfolio can reduce the cost risk effectively. For renewable-power generation, because of relatively high generating costs, it will be necessary to obtain stronger policy support to promote renewable-power development. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
	2010
卷号	35 期号:3 页码:12,1391-1402
ISSN	0360-5442
学科领域	Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000275596200022
引用统计	被引频次：66[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/4469
专题	中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所(1985年6月-2015年12月)
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, L,Fan, Y. Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory[J]. ENERGY,2010,35(3):12,1391-1402.
APA	Zhu, L,&Fan, Y.(2010).Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory.ENERGY,35(3),12,1391-1402.
MLA	Zhu, L,et al."Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory".ENERGY 35.3(2010):12,1391-1402.

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