CASISD OpenIR  > 系统分析与管理研究所
A Novel Ensemble Approach for the Forecasting of Energy Demand Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm
Hao, Jun; Sun, Xiaolei; Feng, Qianqian
发表期刊ENERGIES
摘要

Accurate forecasting of the energy demand is crucial for the rational formulation of energy policies for energy management. In this paper, a novel ensemble forecasting model based on the artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm for the energy demand was proposed and adopted. The ensemble model forecasts were based on multiple time variables, such as the gross domestic product (GDP), industrial structure, energy structure, technological innovation, urbanization rate, population, consumer price index, and past energy demand. The model was trained and tested using the primary energy demand data collected in China. Seven base models, including the regression-based model and machine learning models, were utilized and compared to verify the superior performance of the ensemble forecasting model proposed herein. The results revealed that (1) the proposed ensemble model is significantly superior to the benchmark prediction models and the simple average ensemble prediction model just in terms of the forecasting accuracy and hypothesis test, (2) the proposed ensemble approach with the ABC algorithm can be employed as a promising framework for energy demand forecasting in terms of the forecasting accuracy and hypothesis test, and (3) the forecasting results obtained for the future energy demand by the ensemble model revealed that the future energy demand of China will maintain a steady growth trend.

2020
卷号13页码:550
DOI10.3390/en13030550
语种英语
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.casisd.cn/handle/190111/9761
专题系统分析与管理研究所
通讯作者Feng, Qianqian
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Hao, Jun,Sun, Xiaolei,Feng, Qianqian. A Novel Ensemble Approach for the Forecasting of Energy Demand Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm[J]. ENERGIES,2020,13:550.
APA Hao, Jun,Sun, Xiaolei,&Feng, Qianqian.(2020).A Novel Ensemble Approach for the Forecasting of Energy Demand Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm.ENERGIES,13,550.
MLA Hao, Jun,et al."A Novel Ensemble Approach for the Forecasting of Energy Demand Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm".ENERGIES 13(2020):550.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 文献类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
2020 energies-A Nove(3034KB)期刊论文作者接受稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Hao, Jun]的文章
[Sun, Xiaolei]的文章
[Feng, Qianqian]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Hao, Jun]的文章
[Sun, Xiaolei]的文章
[Feng, Qianqian]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Hao, Jun]的文章
[Sun, Xiaolei]的文章
[Feng, Qianqian]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: 2020 energies-A Novel Ensemble Approach for the Forecasting of Energy Demand Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。